Press release 03 October 2007
Ministry of the Environment
The Commission on Climate and Vulnerability

Sweden must adapt to a new climate

Sweden will be greatly affected by climate change. Adaptation to climate change should start now. This is the conclusion drawn by the Commission on Climate and Vulnerability in its final report, which makes recommendations including increased responsibility for
municipalities and county administrative boards and government support for large-scale high-cost initiatives.

"The climate scenarios the Commission has produced contain uncertainties, but are sufficiently robust to be used as a basis for public planning," says the Chair of the Commission, Bengt Holgersson. "Municipalities, government agencies, companies and individuals must become aware of climate change and what it will mean for different regions and sectors of society."

For Sweden, as for other northern countries, climate change will bring both positive and negative effects. The temperature climate in the Mälardalen valley will resemble that in northern France today, but with higher levels of precipitation. This will bring increased risk of flooding, landslides and erosion in many parts of the country. At the same time, forest growth will increase, Sweden´s energy balance will improve in line with increased hydropower potential, and energy requirements for heating will decrease by 30 percent towards the end of the century.

In several areas, it is important that measures are taken now, including for housing development, roads, railways, power and telecommunications networks and wastewater management systems. Municipalities must start taking account of climate change and the risks of extreme weather events in their physical planning, so that further risks do not become built into society. The Commission has made broad model calculations of the costs of damage that may arise.

"There are obviously great uncertainties in our calculations, but we wish to show how important it is to take measures right now, so that the impact on Sweden will not be unnecessarily severe," says Holgersson. "Over 300,000 buildings are in high-risk areas for landslides and erosion. Buildings to a value of SEK 30-100 billion, depending on how the climate develops, are expected to be affected over the next century if no action is taken. Flooding of the built environment may cost over SEK 100 billion. Damage prevention costs are in many cases substantially lower. In certain parts of the country, relatively high-cost investments need to be made immediately to prevent extensive damage to areas with existing development such as those around Lake Vänern and Lake Mälaren. A government climate adaptation grant should be established to support these efforts.

Consideration of the effects of climate change must be integrated into decision-making processes in both the private and public sectors, to make climate adaptation cost-effective. Many measures can be taken in conjunction with regular maintenance and new investment. The Commission wishes county administrative boards to be given a key role in climate adaptation activity, and makes proposals that include the establishment of a climate adaptation committee in each county administrative board to support municipalities and other players.

Forest growth is expected to increase by about 20-40 percent. Conditions for agricultural production will improve, while damage to forests and crops will increase. Storm damage to forests, with consequences across society, will also increase. Far-sighted measures are needed to exploit the advantages and avoid undesirable adaptation, such as pesticide use and the introduction of tree species unfavourable to biological diversity.

Swedish nature will undergo change, and ecosystems in the Baltic Sea may change dramatically. There will be an invasion of scrub in the mountains. The warmer climate will also bring health risks, such as increased spread of infection to both humans and animals.

Knowledge of how climate change will affect different parts of society and of adaptation strategies that should be taken is still relatively limited, and the Commission concludes that more research in this area is needed. The report proposes the establishment of a new institute focused on climate research and climate adaptation in order to harness efforts in this area.

The report M2007:60 "Sweden and Climate Change - Threats and Opportunities" will be translated into English and published in the end of November 2007.